Indicators characterizing the development of a particular country. Key indicators of economic development. The specifics of dividing the economy into levels
The nature and dynamics of the country's economic development are the subject of close attention of economists and politicians. Much depends on what processes and structural changes are taking place in the national economy in the life of the country and its prospects.
Economic development and its level
Essence of economic development
In the real economic life of society, this balance is disturbed. However, equilibrium modeling makes it possible to find the deviation of real processes from the ideal. The most famous are the Cobb-Douglas factor model and R. Solow's simple one-sector model of economic dynamics.
The Cobb-Douglas factor model (see 2.2) shows the interaction and interchangeability of labor and capital, how much the product owes its creation to one or another factor, under what combination of them the maximum production can be achieved at the lowest cost.
The same amount of increase in the national product can be obtained either as a result of an increase in capital investment or an increase in the use of labor. Therefore, on the basis of production functions, the choice is made of the technological combination of these factors of production required under given specific conditions.
In the subsequent numerous studies of economists (E. Denison, R. Solow), the Cobb-Douglas model was modified and developed by introducing other growth factors: the age of fixed capital, the scale of production, the qualifications of workers, the duration of the working week, etc.
Neoclassical Solow Models
R. Solow made a significant contribution to the development of the theory of economic growth. He developed two models: a model of factor analysis of sources of economic growth and a model that reveals the relationship between savings, capital accumulation and economic growth. The basis of the first model was the Cobb-Douglas production function. It was modified by introducing another factor - the level of technology development: .
Q = F (K, L, T) (21.2)
where Q - output; K - fixed capital; L - invested labor (in the form of wages); T is the level of technology development.
Solow suggested that the change in technology leads to the same increase in the marginal product K and L, i.e.
Q = TF (K ,L), (21.3)
where F(K, L) is the usual neoclassical Cobb-Douglas production function.
The increase in output can be represented as follows:
s Q= sTF (K, L) + s K TF K + s L TF L (21.4)
This means that the increase in output depends proportionally on the increase in technology (sT), the increase in fixed capital (sK) and the increase in labor input (sL). The share of capital change in output is equal to s K times the marginal product of capital (TF K), and the share of labor in output is equal to s L times the marginal product of labor (TF L)
If the shares of labor and capital in output are measured on the basis of labor productivity, capital-labor ratio per worker and return on assets, then the contribution of technical progress is presented as the remainder after subtracting the share received from the increase in output from the increase in labor and capital - this is the so-called Solow residual, which expresses the share of economic growth due to technological progress, or "progress in knowledge".
Another Solow model shows the relationship between savings, capital accumulation and economic growth.
If we designate the production of products per one employed q, the amount of capital per one worker - k (capital or capital-labor ratio), then the production function will take the form:
Rice. 21.1. Production function per capita
As can be seen from fig. 21.1, as the capital-labor ratio grows, q grows, but it increases to a lesser extent, since the marginal productivity of capital (capital productivity) falls.
In the Solow model, output (Q) is determined by investment (I) and consumption (C). It is assumed that the economy is closed from the world market, and domestic investment (I) is equal to national savings, or the volume of gross capital formation (S), i.e. I = S.
As already shown, the dynamics of output in this case depends on the capital-labor ratio, which changes under the influence of the disposal of fixed capital or investments. In turn, investments depend on the rate of gross capital formation, which is a relative value and is calculated as the ratio of gross capital formation to the created product; it determines the division of the product into investments, savings and consumption.
The rate of accumulation directly affects the level of capital-labor ratio. With the growth of the rate of accumulation (savings), investments increase, exceeding retirement. At the same time, production assets are increasing. Thus, in the short run, the acceleration of economic growth depends on the rate of accumulation. In the future, developing his model, Solow introduces new factors that affect, along with investment and disposal, the capital-labor ratio: population growth (labor force) and technical progress.
It is assumed that technological changes are labor-saving, i.e. contribute to the improvement of qualifications, the development of professional skills, the educational level of employees.
Keynesianism
The central problem of macroeconomics for Keynesian theory is the factors that determine the level and dynamics of national income, its distribution. These factors are considered from the point of view of implementation in the conditions of formation of effective demand. Keynes focused on studying constituent parts demand, i.e. consumption and accumulation, as well as the factors on which the movement of these components and demand as a whole depends.
It was with the movement of consumption and accumulation that Keynes linked the volume and dynamics of national income.
"See: Classics of Keynesianism. In 2 vols. M., 1997. Vol. 1.
Harrod's notation is specific. With a steady growth rate of GH production, the capital investment requirements will be expressed by the value of GniGr, where Gr is the “required capital ratio”, which is the increase in fixed and working capital necessary to provide a unit of production increase; it can fluctuate during the cycle due mainly to the size of working capital. From the point of view of the long term, Gr is a constant value at a constant rate of interest, for technical progress, according to Harrod, under these conditions is neutral in nature, labor-saving inventions are allegedly balanced by capital-saving inventions. As regards the movement of the rate of interest and its influence on Cr, its prolonged decrease causes an increase in Cr, and its increase entails a reduction in Cr.
Harrod's equation, which expresses the equilibrium conditions at a natural growth rate, has the form:
GniCr = or = S
It means that in order to ensure a sustainable rate of production growth at full employment, the invested share of income Gni Cr must be equal to its saved share S. In essence, this is a modification of the Keynes equation: I \u003d S, where I is the amount of investment. The difference is that, according to Keynes, the size of investment I is determined by the marginal efficiency of capital (rate of profit) and the rate of interest, while Harrod relates these sizes to population growth, technological progress and the "required capital ratio". The size of savings S in both cases is determined by a psychological factor - people's propensity to save, Harrod emphasizes. such as would have been the case had it not been for chronic unemployment, undercapacity and economic crises.
Proving the possibility of closing the gap between the actual growth rate G and the natural growth rate Gn, Harrod introduces a new category - the "guaranteed" growth rate Gw. Guaranteed, according to Harrod, is a pace that satisfies entrepreneurs who are ready to support it in the future. According to Harrod's equation
GiCr =S = GwiCr (21.8)
those. for sustainable growth, the actual need for capital must be equal to its need at a guaranteed growth rate. Harrod recognizes the inability of the market economy to self-regulate and justifies the need state regulation economy.
The growth model developed by Harrod was supposed to provide a dynamic balance of the main national economic values. The rate of economic growth in this model ultimately depends on the share of accumulation in national income and the capital intensity of production. The abstract nature of the model should be noted, since it reflects only the most general dependences of the process of social production: between accumulation, consumption, and growth rates of national income under given and unchanged technical and economic conditions. In fact, an extensive type of growth is considered.
Questions of the cyclical development of a market economy from booms to busts were developed in the dynamic theory of the cycle, the most prominent representative of which is the American economist E. Hansen. Hansen's main recommendation is to expand demand at the expense of the state budget, which inevitably unleashes inflation and ultimately nullifies attempts to overcome the contradiction between production and consumption, since financing would be carried out at the expense of public debt.
Economic crisis 1973-1975 contributed to the formation of a new trend - post-Keynesianism, the recognized leader of which is the representative of the English Cambridge school J. Robinson. The originality of post-Keynesianism as an independent trend was most clearly manifested in the development of the theory of economic growth and product distribution, which is based on the idea that the growth rate of the social product depends on the distribution of national income, which, in turn, is a function of capital accumulation. It is the rate of capital accumulation that determines the rate of profit, and hence the share of profit in the national income. The share of wages is defined as a residual value. The real significance of post-Keynesian theory is that it attempts to link the proportions of distribution with the proportions of reproduction.
The structural crisis and the accompanying long-term depression that engulfed the world economy from the mid-1970s prompted an intensification of research into macroeconomic dynamics. The forgotten idea of J. Schumpeter about the uneven nature of economic growth and innovations as a factor of this unevenness turned out to be in the center of attention. According to this theory, innovation disrupts economic equilibrium, which is then restored under the influence of economic competition processes. Neoclassical theory could not explain the periodic fluctuations in economic activity. A theory of long-term technical and economic development is being developed. In Russia, it was reflected in the works of S.Yu. Glazyev, who focuses his attention on the macrotechnological dynamics, content, mechanism and geography of the change in technological patterns.
At present, the concept of "economic development without growth" has become widespread in Western countries. This is due, on the one hand, to the fact that a high level of per capita production has already been achieved on the basis of the scientific and technological revolution, and, on the other hand, the population growth rate has significantly decreased. In addition, supporters of this concept believe that economic growth leads to a violation of the biosphere of human life and is limited due to the lack of raw materials and fuel resources of the planet.
State regulation of economic growth
The state strategy for stimulating economic growth in developed countries at different stages had its own specifics and adopted various concepts, skillfully combining the recipes of neoclassical, Keynesian and neo-Keynesian trends.
In the 90s. there is a significant increase in public spending on social security, health care, education, which is largely due to the growing role of "human capital", creative, innovative human activity as the most important factor in economic growth and the accumulation of national wealth. This is typical not only for developed countries, but also for developing countries.
Another direction of state policy that stimulates economic growth is maintaining competitiveness and an optimal structure of production through legislative regulation of tax and other preferences, direct or indirect subsidizing of individual industries and regions from the state budget. This is especially true for transport and communication infrastructure. Great importance still attached state support fundamental and applied research, design development.
Cyclical fluctuations in economic growth. Theories of business cycles
The condition for sustainability and stable economic development is balance, a balance between social production and consumption, aggregate demand and aggregate supply. However, in a market economy, the state of equilibrium is periodically disturbed. There is a certain cyclicity, recurrence in the functioning of the national economy, when periods of economic recovery are replaced by periods of recession and stagnation. Cyclicity can be defined as the movement of the national economy from one macroeconomic equilibrium to another.
The economic cycle includes a number of phases of economic activity successively replacing each other, expressing the uneven development of national economies and the economic process as a whole. Ultimately, economic growth manifests itself through cyclicity, because the movement does not occur in a circle, but in a spiral, reflecting both long-term and medium-term fluctuations in the situation.
Economic theory distinguishes a number of cycles of economic development (growth): long-wave cycles that express long-term fluctuations in economic activity with a period of about 50 years and are called "Kondratiev cycles" (after the Russian economist); normal, or so-called large, industrial cycles with a period of 8 to 12 years and small cycles, or "Kitchin cycles" (after the American economist who discovered them), lasting 3-4 years. This is the period that is necessary for the mass renewal of fixed assets.
industrial economic cycle
In the classical version, the industrial economic cycle consists of four phases: the crisis of overproduction, depression, recovery and recovery. The final and initial phase in the development of the cycle is overproduction, which expresses a strong imbalance in the reproduction process, the overaccumulation of capital in all its forms (monetary, productive, commodity) in comparison with the capacity of the market.
This overaccumulation of capital manifests itself primarily in the sphere of circulation, as evidenced by the accumulation of commodity stocks, the slowdown in the turnover of capital, and the disruption of acts of purchase and sale. As a result - a drop in growth rates, a reduction in output, a decrease in wages, a decrease in prices.
During an economic crisis, as a rule, credit relations are disrupted and the crisis covers the financial market.
In the phase of depression, the decline in production stops, the fall in prices stops. The unemployment rate is still high. The decrease in the rate of loan interest stimulates the demand for loan capital. This creates the prerequisites for a certain accumulation of capital and contributes to the revival of production. Then comes a new phase in the movement of the cycle - revival. Unemployment is declining, consumer demand is growing, there is an increase in prices, the rate of profit, the demand for capital increases, and, consequently, the interest rate increases. The revival gradually embraces new industries in a spiral. The lifting phase begins.
Modern Western economists, in contrast to the traditional approach, consider the structure of the economic cycle in a slightly different way, highlighting the following phases: boom and boom (peak), contraction and recession, where the boom is the peak of the rise in production, and the recession is the lowest point of its decline (Fig. 21.2).
Rice. 21.2. Business Cycle Model
The phase of an economic downturn between the highest and lowest points of the cycle is called a recession. If the recession is extremely deep, as in the period from 1929 to 1933, this phase is called a depression."
"See: SaksJ.D., Larren F.B. Macroeconomics. Global approach / Translated from English. M., 1996.
Evolution of business cycles
Industrial cycles clearly manifested themselves already at the beginning of the 19th century. In 1825 in England, which at that time was the economic leader, the first economic crisis broke out. In the future, economic crises were repeated periodically in 8-12 years, gradually taking on a global character.
The economic cycles of the era of free competition and the modern regulated market economy differ significantly both in duration as a whole and in manifestations of imbalance, the depth and scale of the decline in production and the living standards of the population.
Crises of the 19th century characterized by significant synchrony, almost simultaneously covering all industrialized countries. Their duration was for the most part from one to two years, the depth of the decline in production was from 5 to 10%.
In the first half of the XX century. The world crisis of 1929-1933 was the longest and deepest. The decline in production reached more than 40% in some countries. Since that time there has been a chronic surplus of fixed capital, constant underutilization of production capacities and chronic unemployment.
As a result of N.D. Kondratiev singled out the following large cycles of conjuncture:
Large cycles Kondratiev considered as a violation and restoration of economic equilibrium for a long period and believed that "the main reason lies in the mechanism of accumulation, accumulation and dispersion of capital sufficient to create new basic productive forces."
"Kondratiev N.D. Problems of economic dynamics. M., 1989. S. 226.
He identified a number of patterns in the development of large cycles:
- before and at the beginning of the upward wave of each large cycle, there are profound changes in technology (which, in turn, are preceded by significant technical discoveries and inventions), in the involvement of new countries in world economic relations, in changes in gold mining and money circulation;
- the periods of the upward wave of each large cycle account for the greatest number of social upheavals (wars and revolutions);
- periods of an upward wave of each major cycle are accompanied by a prolonged and especially pronounced depression in agriculture;
- during the period of an upward wave of large cycles, the average capitalist cycles are characterized by the shortness of depressions and the intensity of upswings;
- during the period of the downward wave of large cycles, the reverse picture is observed. 2
"Kondratiev N.D. Problems of economic dynamics. M., 1989. S. 225.
2 Ibid. S. 225
Kondratiev's conclusions were confirmed in further development economic conjuncture. Prolonged and deep crisis of 1929-1933. unfolded during the period of a downward wave of a large cycle that began at the end of the 19th century. About fifty years later, in 1973-1975. again, against the backdrop of a downward wave, there was the deepest and most destructive decline in production in recent decades.
Economic growth in the 80-90s. in developed countries took place in the context of the unfolding fifth technological order (the current stage of the scientific and technological revolution), which determined the beginning of a new upward wave of a large cycle.
After N.D. Kondratiev, such well-known scientists as J. Schumpeter, S. Kuznets, K. Clark, W. Mitchell and others were engaged in the study of the long-wave cycle. Among modern Russian economists, it should be noted Yu. Yakovets, L. Klimenko, S. Menshikov, S. Glazyev. It was confirmed that the transitions from one phase of a large cycle to another are associated with technological upheavals and structural transformations in the economy. However, the theory of long waves is not universal. It has been critically reviewed on numerous occasions. As you know, life makes numerous amendments to various concepts community development. At the same time, the theory of long-wave cycles helps to study and predict the general patterns of socio-economic development.
Structural changes in economic development
Essence of economic structure
The national economy is a complex system consisting of many macroeconomic elements that are closely related to each other. The relationship between these elements is economic structure.
The economic structure is of great importance for the balance of the national economy, its effective and sustainable growth. Thus, the success in economic growth of most Western countries is largely due to deep structural changes that ensured the overall dynamism of production and other positive qualitative changes. The rapid growth of production in a number of newly industrialized countries of Southeast Asia occurred primarily due to the acceleration of the development of non-traditional industries for these countries, i.e. as a result of a sharp change in the structure of the economy.
The theory of structure occupies a rather honorable place in economics. Much attention was paid to these problems, in particular, by the Nobel Prize winners L. Kantorovich, S. Kuznets, V. Leontiev and others.
The structure of the economy is a multifaceted concept; it can be viewed from different points of view, reflecting the ratio of various elements of the economic system. Usually allocate branch, reproduction, regional and foreign trade structures.
Industry structure
Industry structure represents the ratio of various sectors and sub-sectors in the system of the national economy. It is complex, dynamic and subject to quantitative and qualitative changes under the influence of scientific and technological progress, the cyclical development of the economy and a number of other factors. a sectoral structure is formed on the basis of the social division of labor.
The division of the national economy into the main sectors of the economy (agriculture and forestry, industry and construction, transport, trade and other service sectors) expresses the general division of labor. In turn, the private division of labor implies the presence in each of these areas of a number of industries. So, in industry there are extractive and manufacturing industries, in the manufacturing industries - light and food industries, mechanical engineering. In mechanical engineering, machine tool building, instrument making, etc. stand out. Finally, in many industries there are sub-sectors that reflect the intra-industry division of labor.
In the process of social reproduction, close relationships are formed between industries, the study of which is necessary to predict the development of the economy. The analysis of these relationships was carried out in the intersectoral balance model developed in the 1930s. Wassily Leontiev (1906-1999), an American scientist of Russian origin, who received the Nobel Prize in Economics for this. This model is called “input-output”, since it considers the quantitative relationship between the input of resources and the output of each industry and shows the movement of goods and services from one sector of the national economy to all others.
Throughout the twentieth century. the sectoral structure of the economy has repeatedly changed. At the beginning of the century, the creation of the social product of the Western countries was dominated by nature exploiting industries (primary processing of natural raw materials), agriculture; mechanical engineering began to develop. By the middle of the century, there is a rapid reduction in the production of GDP in the share of primary industries and agriculture, and the share of the service sector is growing sharply.
The transition to a post-industrial society at the end of the twentieth century. accompanied by fundamental changes in the industrial structure of developed countries, which is expressed in the following:
Reproductive structure
This is a slice of the economic system, which reflects the possibilities of economic growth and its efficiency. The most important is the relationship between consumption and accumulation, since it is the main, determining condition for expanded reproduction. In principle, the higher the share of gross capital formation, the higher the growth rate of the economy. For the former Soviet Union was characterized by the rate of gross capital formation, amounting to approximately 30-40% of GDP. Subsequently, this rate decreased and in 1990 in Russia it was at the level of 20.7%. Structural restructuring of the economy is carried out in conditions of limited investment resources.
Methods of influencing the economic structure
The economic structure does not remain once and for all given. It is subject to change, and the faster these changes occur, the more elastic the structure is adjusted to the requirements of the time, the more successfully the economy develops. Structural changes after the Second World War covered almost all countries, and although their paths were not the same, two main ones can be distinguished from them.
In one, elemental forces, generated by purely market relations, prevail. The structure changes as a result of changes in the rate of return. The owners of enterprises that have ceased to be promising are ruined or satisfied with a lower profitability. Capital, labor force, entrepreneurial energy rush to where it has become more profitable today.
Another way is the widespread use of state levers to accelerate progressive structural changes. Here, the necessary predictive estimates are usually used, which help to determine in advance which elements of the structure should be reduced, and which it is advisable to provide assistance.
The first path, with a certain degree of conventionality, can be called American. According to him in the 80s. Great Britain followed. Here, the element of the market served mainly as a support with passive state intervention. This path turned out to be long, with significant social costs, and was accompanied by a slow growth in production efficiency.
The second path is the Japanese one (which has been following Japan for more than 40 years). South Korea), relying on centralized regulatory levers, state planning and accelerated cross-industry transfer of resources. This path is faster, with lower social costs and significant productivity growth.
conclusions
1. The economic development of society is a multifaceted process covering all areas of economic activity. Indicators of the dynamics of economic development are numerous, the main one being GDP per capita.
2. Due to the difficulties in measuring the process of economic development in macroeconomics, economic growth is most often analyzed, i.e. change in the volume of goods and services produced in the country, although this is only one of the criteria for economic development. Economic growth can be measured in physical and monetary terms.
3. The leading factor in economic growth at present is scientific and technological progress. With the development and mastering of the achievements of scientific and technical progress, intensive factors become predominant.
4. Modern theories of economic growth are developing within the framework of neoclassical, Keynesian, neo-Keynesian and post-Keynesian directions, which is reflected in the state strategy for the economic development of society, methods and forms of state regulation of economic growth.
5. The economic development of society is uneven, includes periods of growth and decline, reflects positive and negative trends.
6. Economic theory distinguishes a number of cycles of economic development, including long-wave cycles covering a period of 45 to 60 years, and industrial economic cycles with a period of 8 to 12 years. Each of them has its own specifics.
7. The national economy is a complex system consisting of many macroeconomic elements that are closely related to each other. The ratio between these elements is the economic structure. Usually, social, sectoral, reproductive, regional and foreign trade structures are distinguished.
8. Sectoral structure characterizes the relationship between different industries and within industries.
9. The main parameter of the reproductive structure is the ratio between consumption and accumulation.
10. The economic structure is subject to change. There are two main ways to change it: spontaneous and state-regulated.
Terms and concepts
Economic development
The economic growth
Business cycle
Economic structure
Structural crises
Industry structure
Reproductive structure
Questions for self-examination
1. What is common and what are the differences between the content of the concepts of "economic development" and "economic growth"?
2. How is the level of economic development determined?
3. What is typical for the economic development of Russia in the 90s: a) GDP growth;
b) the evolution of forms of ownership; c) decline in production; d) structural shifts in the economy; e) the formation of market institutions?
4. What are the main differences between neoclassical and Keynesian concepts of economic growth?
5. What role does R. Solow assign to scientific and technological progress in the process of economic growth? What does the so-called Solow remainder express?
6, What is the specificity of state regulation of economic growth in modern conditions?
7. What underlies the development of the sectoral structure of the economy?
8. Why is the proportion between accumulation and consumption the main one in characterizing the reproductive structure of the economy?
9. What explains the cyclical development of a market economy?
10. What is the difference between long-wave cycles of economic development and industrial economic cycles?
The development of the economy is manifested in such processes as:
- an increase in the human development index, GDP and GNP levels;
- expansion of aggregate demand for goods and services;
- increase in labor productivity;
- improvement of innovative activity;
- increasing the level of economic freedom (lack of interference by the state in trade, financial, labor, investment and other processes);
- improvement of the investment climate in the state (increased investment in various industries business, as well as science, education, medicine, culture, sports);
- positive qualitative changes in all spheres of the economy;
- growth in the well-being of the population.
One of the components of economic development is economic growth - a quantitative increase in GDP per citizen of the country. High GDP indicators indicate not only an improvement in the quality of life of citizens of the state, but also the rational and efficient use of production resources.
The main factors influencing the development of the economy
On a national scale, the development of the economy is influenced by objective and subjective factors that contribute to a real increase in the amount of goods produced and consumed, as well as the services provided. Phenomena that have a direct (immediate) impact on the pace of economic development are considered objective. These include:
- improving the quality and volume of capital;
- modernization of production technologies;
- increasing entrepreneurial activity, development of small and medium-sized businesses;
- improving the quality of labor resources and their growth;
- an increase in consumer demand, to meet which the total volume of production also increases.
Subjective factors are processes that have an indirect (mediated) impact. These include:
- improvement regulatory framework, the introduction of more flexible tax conditions in order to stimulate economic activity;
- introduction by the state of new mechanisms for attracting capital investments (investments);
- reducing the monopolization of sales markets in order to increase the competitiveness of small businesses;
- introduction of new (innovative) technologies to improve the quality of life in society.
The development of the economy also depends on such factors as the quantity and quality of natural resources (national wealth), the size of the working population and scientific and technological development.
Features of economic development in Russia
According to financial analysts, the Russian model of economic development was formed under the influence of such factors as:
- uneven economic growth in different regions of the state;
- focus on quick enrichment through the use of national natural resources;
- unfavorable ("opaque") conditions for the business environment;
- corruption;
- monopolization of the domestic economy, which hinders the development of "healthy" competition;
- instability of tax legislation;
- declining quality of education and labor resources;
- lack of distinction between political, economic and criminal power.
All of the above phenomena, including social transformations and mentality, have affected the decline in business activity in the country. As a result, an existing market model of the economy has been formed in the state.
The main object of macroeconomic planning and forecasting is the process of social reproduction. This is explained by the fact that the production of goods and services is the basis of society. Under goods (products) in statistics and PES, economic benefits are understood that are obtained from raw materials and have an independent use value. Service - this is an economic good that does not have a natural-material form, while the production process coincides with the consumption process. Services are tangible and intangible.
The result of social production is a variety of goods and services. Macroeconomic indicators are used to characterize this diversity. Two assessment systems are used: a) Marxist, b) adopted by the UN on the basis of the SNA.
According to the Marxist system of expanded reproduction, the social product is created in the sphere of material production. TO branches of material production include: industry, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, construction, transport, trade and public catering, logistics, procurement, information and computing services, geology and some other activities. Sphere of intangible production includes housing and communal services, household service population, health care, education, physical culture, social security, culture and art, science and scientific services, finance, credit, insurance, pension provision, management, public associations,
The main indicators are:
total social product- a set of material goods and services produced in the economic territory of the country, residents and non-residents for a certain period of time. Its value is determined as the sum of gross output by sectors of the national economy. This indicator characterizes the scale of social production, but not the final results, since it includes a repeated count due to intermediate consumption.
Intermediate consumption is the value of goods and market services consumed during a given period for the purpose of producing other goods and services. (Reflected in section 1 of the MOB).
end social product differs from the SOP by the value of the intermediate product. The COP is understood as that part of the SOP that goes beyond the current production consumption and is used for personal and public consumption, retirement compensation and accumulation of fixed assets, accumulation of working capital, creation of stocks and reserves, formation of an export-import balance.
national income shows the part of the social product that goes to personal consumption and the accumulation of fixed assets. The national income is the main source of meeting the needs of the population and expanded reproduction.
According to the UN system, the main indicator is GNP.
Gross national product is the value of goods and services produced by the residents of the country, regardless of the economic territory of the country, minus the part that was consumed in the production process. It includes both the products of the material sectors of the economy and the non-manufacturing sphere.
GNP is calculated in three ways:
A) production - The sum of gross value added (taking into account additional adjustments caused by the transition from basic prices to end-use prices) of all sectors of the economy. GNP does not include the cost of consumed raw materials, materials, fuel and other material resources provided by economic units of services.
B) income distribution method - the total amount of income of business units and the population engaged in the production of material goods and services. At the same time, according to the current methodology, income includes wages of employees, profits, net income of collective farms, income received as a result of individual labor activity, redistributed income (interest on deposits, income from valuable papers, social insurance receipts, etc.), depreciation deductions of fixed production and non-production assets.
C) the end use method - is calculated by the value of the final consumption of material goods and services, capital investments, the increase in material working capital and the balance of foreign trade operations.
A modification of GNP is an indicator of gross domestic product (GDP), which refers to the value of goods and services produced in the country by both residents and non-residents. GDP differs from GNP by the amount factor income from abroad. In this case, the difference is understood between the income that residents received abroad and the income that non-residents received in this country.
Currently, most countries are switching to GDP calculation, as it is difficult to accurately determine the output of residents abroad.
GDP and GNP are calculated at current and constant prices. To accurately determine economic development, it is advisable to consider gross indicators at constant prices. The following methods are used to calculate GDP at constant prices:
Deflation using price indices (Fischer, Pasche, Laspeyras),
Double deflation to calculate value added at constant prices. This method consists in successive deflation first of output and then of intermediate consumption.
Method of extrapolation of indicators of the base period using indices of physical volume.
Method of revaluation by cost elements.
An important indicator of economic development is the indicator national wealth, which is understood as the totality of accumulated tangible and intangible assets created by the labor of all previous generations, owned by the country or its residents and located in the economic territory of the country and beyond its borders, as well as explored and involved in the economic circulation of natural and other resources.
To reflect the growth rate and scale of social production, it is necessary to determine the following parameters:
The physical volume of the indicator;
The growth rate of the size of its production;
The magnitude of the absolute and relative growth in the planning period.
The increase in a country's GDP at constant prices over a given period of time is called economic growth. Economic growth is measured in growth rates and growth rates.
There are two types of economic growth: intensive and extensive.
Investment is the most important factor in economic growth.
The rate of economic growth is influenced by the effectiveness of technical progress, the scale of explored and exploitable natural resources, the ratio between the consumption fund and the accumulation fund in the national income, and the structure of social production.
Forecasting the dynamics of the development of the national economy can pursue several goals:
· Identification of the main factors influencing economic growth;
· Quantitative assessment of the degree of influence of each factor on growth rates;
· Prediction of alternative ways of economic growth based on the possible dynamics of factors, changes in their combination and relative efficiency;
· Determination of opportunities and directions of active influence on the process of economic growth.
13.1. Economic development and its level. Indicator of economic growth and development.
13.2. Cyclical development of the economy. Phases of the economic cycle.
13.3. Types of economic crises. Features of the current economic crisis.
13.1. Economic development and its level. Indicator of economic growth and development.
Economic development means the improvement of production, investments in which lead to an increase in qualitative socio-economic indicators. When determining the level of economic development of a country, it is necessary to establish a reference point. Many countries of the world
the level of economic development of their country is compared with the level of SITA.
The level of economic development of the country is a historical concept. Each stage of development of the national economy and the world community as a whole introduces certain changes in the composition of its main indicators. Diverse combination of production factors and development conditions various countries does not allow assessing the level of economic development from any one point of view.
Key indicators of the level of economic development:
1) GDP (gross domestic product) or ND (national income) per capita;
2) sectoral structure of the national economy;
3) production of main types of products per capita;
4) the level and quality of life of the population;
5) indicators of economic efficiency of production.
The leading indicators in the analysis of the level of economic development are indicators of GDP and ND per capita. These indicators form the basis of the international classification that divides countries into developed and developing countries.
Another indicator widely used in international practice is the sectoral structure of the economy. Its analysis is carried out on the basis of GDP calculated by industry. First of all, the correlation between the large national economic branches of material and non-material production is studied.
The level of economic development of the country is characterized by the indicators of production of some basic types of products, which are basic for the development of the national economy. They make it possible to judge the possibilities of meeting the needs of the country in these basic types of products. These indicators include electricity generation per capita. The electric power industry underlies the development of all sectors of the national economy; this indicator hides the possibilities for developing the scientific and technical process, the achieved level of production and quality of goods, the level of services, etc.
Another characteristic indicator of this kind is the country's per capita production of basic foodstuffs (grain, milk, meat, sugar, potatoes, etc.). The standard of living of the country's population is largely characterized by the structure of GDP in terms of its use. The analysis of the structure of net final consumption (personal consumption expenditures) is especially important. A large share in the consumption of durable goods and services indicates a higher standard of living of the population, and therefore a higher overall level of the country's economic development.
An analysis of the standard of living of the population is usually accompanied by an analysis of two interrelated indicators - the consumer basket and the subsistence minimum. Limited resources, cyclical development of the economy directly affect the economic growth of the country. Economic growth is a constant increase in the real volume of production of goods and services produced over a certain period of time (usually a year). The increase in total production is calculated as a percentage relative to the previous period.
Economic growth can be measured in natural (tons, meters, etc.) and cost indicators. The first method is more reliable, because eliminates the effect of inflation, and is more universal, since it is difficult to calculate the overall rate for the production of various products when calculating growth rates. The second method is used more often, but it is not always possible to completely clear it of inflationary layers.
Main indicators of economic growth:
1) annual increase in the volume of GNP, GDP, ND;
2) annual growth rates of GNP, GDP, ND per capita;
3) annual growth rates of industrial production as a whole, its branches per capita.
There is an extensive type of economic growth based on the old technical and technological base, and an intensive type of economic growth based on new technology and modern technology. Extensive growth occurs due to quantitative factors while maintaining the same technological basis (additional involvement of labor, an increase in the number of enterprises, workshops, expansion of the construction of new facilities). With this type of economic growth, an increasing amount of resources (natural, labor, material) is involved in production, but there are no significant changes in equipment and technology, the organization of production and labor, and the qualifications of workers.
The intensive growth of production occurs due to a more complete use of the resource potential, an increase in labor productivity, the return of fixed production assets, and the efficiency of the use of working capital (Fig. 13.1).
Rice. 13.1. Intensive production growth
In practice, extensive and intensive types of economic growth do not exist in their pure form, therefore, a distinction is made between predominantly intensive and predominantly extensive development paths.
In Russia, the rate of economic growth in the 1990s were negative, and only since 1997, after a deep recession, some stabilization has come. Developed countries are characterized by low rates of economic growth (1-4%). These countries can no longer freely involve additional labor and natural resources in production. The development of production is carried out by improving the existing technologies. In addition, the high level of development of these countries puts before the economy such limiting growth rates as protecting the environment and preserving non-renewable natural resources, and improving the quality of life.
The tiered division of the economy is necessary for drawing up a general concept of economic development and the successful use of available unilateral resources. The economy is divided into the following basic levels:
- Microeconomic level - microeconomics is perceived as a separate, independent enterprise or production. At the microeconomic level, the activities of individual firms and sectors of the national economy are studied.
- Macroeconomic level - is a set of industries and enterprises united by the economy of one state. The object of study of macroeconomics is the economic state of the country, which is expressed in national income, gross national product, aggregate supply and demand, levels of employment and unemployment, inflation.
- The level of the world economy - displays the sequence of processes of emergence and development of the international economy.
Such a division of the economy into levels is conditional, since a close relationship has been established between all of them: macroeconomics is the theoretical foundation for studying microeconomics, while the state of the economy of an individual state is determined by the efficiency of individual companies, enterprises and commercial organizations.
According to the extended classification, the economy is divided into the following levels:
- global or world economy;
- National economy(macroeconomics);
- regional economy (economics of a region, territory or region);
- municipal economy (economy of cities, settlements);
- economics of an organization, firm, enterprise (microeconomics);
- economics of a household (family);
- personal economy (individual).
Levels of economic analysis
Modern economics distinguishes between two basic levels of analysis:
- microeconomic - the economic activity of individual enterprises (economic entities) is studied in order to identify factors that contribute to the adoption of certain decisions;
- macroeconomic - studies the national economy as a whole, including economic processes occurring at the social level. Such an analysis is of a general nature and is necessary to create a general economic picture in the state.
The basic principle of macroeconomic analysis is the aggregation of economic indicators - the union of economic units with similar specifics to reduce economic indicators into generalized units in order to create a single economic complex.
The specifics of dividing the economy into levels
The totality of levels of the economy, including all types of economic and economic relations, forms the economic system of the state. The ultimate goal of economic activity is to satisfy the vital needs of people through the use of various productive forces and means, as well as the development of production relations between economic entities. The level division of the economy is determined by the type of economic system, forms of ownership, factors of production and the methodology for coordinating actions.
For the economic system of a society to be stable, it is necessary that at all economic levels its components (production, supplies, exchange and final consumption) interact with each other, smoothly flowing into each other.
