An open appeal to the head of Roshydromet Yakovenko Maxim Evgenievich. Maxim Yakovenko is squeezing out resources Why research vessels are needed

The head of Roshydromet, Alexander Frolov, was relieved of his post. The corresponding order was signed by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on September 6, according to the government website. The report clarifies that the release of Frolov from the post of head is associated with the achievement of the age limit for being in the civil service. Frolov has held this post since 2010.

The head of the Ministry of Natural Resources also said that Frolov left the post due to age.

“The former head of the department, Alexander Frolov, left the post due to the achievement of 65 years,” Donskoy quotes.

Medvedev appointed Maxim as the new head of Roshydromet, removing him from his previous position.

Prior to that, Yakovenko was the deputy head of the service. He himself stated that Frolov led the service in a difficult period, when there were large budget cuts, and noted that his former leader had a significant merit in maintaining Roshydromet.

This summer, domestic hydrometeorological services, including Roshydromet, have repeatedly become the cause of scandals in the media. In particular, criticism of the "heavenly office" was expressed after the hurricane that hit Moscow at the end of May, which claimed the lives of 16 people.

After a severe storm that covered the capital on May 29, the head of Russia proposed to fine weather forecasters for providing inaccurate or untimely information about weather conditions.

According to the head of the Russian department for emergency situations, this is necessary in order to increase the efficiency of the system for alerting citizens about extreme weather conditions. After the tragedy on May 29, it turned out that not all residents of the metropolitan area received notifications from the Ministry of Emergency Situations about an impending natural disaster. Representatives of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations blamed Roshydromet for the incident, saying that the forecast provided by weather forecasters turned out to be inaccurate and did not fall under the criteria emergency, because it indicated a wind speed of less than 25 m/s.

Representatives of Roshydromet, in turn, rejected these accusations, assuring that the forecast was accurate and timely and that it was immediately sent to the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Commenting on Puchkov's proposal to introduce fines, the deputy head of the situational center of Hydromet noted that this practice is still being applied. “For a long time, weather forecasters in our administration and in the field have been deprecated for the unjustified forecast,” Tsygankov emphasized.

Chairman Valentina Matviyenko later agreed with this position. “They (at Roshydromet — Gazeta.Ru) already have low salaries, why pay a fine?” Matvienko said on June 6. also expressed confidence that weather forecasters make mistakes "not out of malice." At the same time, the Chairman of the Federation Council stressed that the state needs to understand the reasons for the inefficient work of Roshydromet. “We need to understand what Roshydromet lacks, why they make mistakes so often, why they work inefficiently. Maybe we need to help them personnel, financially,” she said.

The scandal around Roshydromet associated with the May hurricane has not yet subsided. On August 29, the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation sent an official letter to the head of the Ministry of Natural Resources, Sergei Donskoy. The message refers to the “mistake” of Roshydromet, which led to “catastrophic consequences” from the hurricane on May 29 in Moscow.

On the same day, the head of the Hydrometeorological Center, Roman Vilfand, expressed bewilderment at the fact that weather forecasters were called “guilty” of natural disasters. “I have not seen the documents. While they are in the ministry, then they will be released to Roshydromet. So this is the first time I hear about it,” added the director of the Hydrometeorological Center.

Another high-profile story involving the hydrometeorological service occurred in early July. Then the leader became the instigator of the scandal - he got wet in the rain due to an inaccurate weather forecast and demanded to disperse Moshydromet, probably confusing Moshydromet for several years as a non-existent organization with other "synoptic" colleagues. “Not because I got wet, but because we are all looking at the sky through the window, and they are probably sitting in the basement!” Zhirinovsky argued his demand.

Then the head of the Liberal Democratic Party also said that the quality of the work of weather forecasters never suited him, and the last rain was the last straw.

Yakovenko Maxim Evgenievich (born September 21, 1967, Obninsk, Kaluga Region, RSFSR, USSR) is a Russian statesman, head (Roshydromet) since 2017. Acting State Councilor of the Russian Federation III class.

In 1991 he graduated from the Faculty of Cosmonautics of the Moscow Aviation Institute, in 1996 - a master's degree from the Higher School of Economics. In the same year, he received a master's degree in economics from the Erasmus University (Netherlands).

In the 1990s he was engaged in entrepreneurship. In 1999 he was appointed adviser to the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Viktor Khristenko. From 2001 to 2003, he served as Deputy Minister of Natural Resources of Russia. From October 2003 to May 2004 - Head of the State Finance Department of the Government Office of the Russian Federation. In 2004-2006, he headed the budget department of the Ministry of Industry and Energy of Russia. Since 2006, he has been the Head of the Government Relations Department at NOVATEK. In 2011, he moved to the Inter RAO UES energy holding as Director for International Cooperation and Interaction with Authorities. Since 2014 - Deputy Head of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of the Russian Federation. September 5, 2017 headed Roshydromet.

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The head of Roshydromet, Maxim Yakovenko, took office last fall. In an interview with Kommersant correspondents Galina Dudina and Olga Nikitina, the head of the department spoke about global climate change, the technological capabilities of Russian meteorologists and the difficulties they face due to lack of funding.

“Our backlog of computing power is significant”

- Let's go straight: what's going on with the weather? Now hurricanes in the summer, then on New Year- no snow...

Another cycle. Weather, climate is a cyclical phenomenon.

So you don't see any drama here?

Well, it got warmer ... The reasons are clear - it's another matter that in last years climate issues take on political overtones. Developed, medium-developed and underdeveloped countries clashed: who pollutes whom, who is to blame for warming.

US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the Paris climate accords: the impact of man on the climate in his environment is considered insufficient. So all the same, the greenhouse effect, global warming exist?

There is warming, the greenhouse effect is observed, but in order to give an answer to this question, one must look deep into the millennia. The natural climatic cycle is not 30 years, but tens, hundreds of thousands of years. At the Vostok station in Antarctica, Roshydromet drilled to a depth of 3.5 km and obtained ice cores that are more than 400,000 years old. So, studying these cores, we established four cycles lasting 100 thousand years each, which included both ice ages and warming periods. Today we are moving in the next cycle to the peak, but to say what it will be and where we will go, in the direction of warming or cooling, we need several hundred more years.

- And the quality of the current weather forecast and errors in it are also related to the fact that the weather is changing globally?

No, the quality of predictions is connected, firstly, with the observational base, with the way you collect primary information. Secondly, with computing power: how do you quickly calculate all this. Moreover, it is necessary to count according to the “ball”, you cannot count only in Russia. If you analyze who owns the top 500 supercomputers in the world, then national meteorological services will be on the first lines - such equipment costs € 50–100 million, and foreign meteorological services try to change it every two years. A similar computer has already appeared in Russia, we are now installing it, its performance is 1.3 petaflops instead of the current 0.3. For comparison: the British weather service has 16 petaflops, the Swiss and the French have 6, the Americans have 4, the Chinese have 4 now, they will set 8. That is, our computing power lags significantly. Well, and thirdly, the quality depends on the predictive model or program on which all this is considered. It must assimilate data, calculate errors, recover missing data. Good program also worth up to €0.5 billion.

- Where do you store all this data?

Roshydromet is one of the world's three data centers, and the entire archive is stored in storage on servers. The main storage is in Obninsk.

- Is the backlog related to funding or lack of development?

With financing and rationality of its use. At the same time, the quality of forecasting is at its best, no matter how some people think: the accuracy of our forecasts is up to 96%. And I want to ask those who are dissatisfied: where do you look at the forecasts, from Roshydromet or from other companies that operate in this market? I have given you three criteria - these are observational networks, computing power and a program for processing. Now ask Yandex, Gismeteo or, say, Phobos to show their observational network, computing power, predictive models and programs.

- But in the mornings on "Yandex" quite accurate forecasts ...

The site of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia meteoinfo.ru is open to everyone, you can safely take everything from there and creatively process it.

So this is plagiarism?

I don't want to use the word "plagiarism" because any serious company, like Yandex, employs serious meteorologists and wonderful people. But when we communicate, we ask them three simple questions about the criteria that I mentioned above. And the quality of forecasts becomes clear.

- Aren't you offended when they use the Yandex.Weather service or similar ones?

- Levada Center conducted market research for us. Since 2010, confidence in Roshydromet has grown from 54% to 76%. So the citizens trust us. By the way, analyzing requests, we can say that the peak of interest in the daily forecast falls on the period from seven to eight in the morning, when a citizen gets ready for work and decides what to wear - and also hydrological forecasts: what will happen with floods, will it rain, whether the summer cottage will flood.

“Every next 10 cm of grass growth gives an error in temperature of 0.1 degrees”

There is a whole community of amateur meteorologists in Russia who are trying to answer these questions on their own. Do you plan to involve them in the work and collect their observations, as is done, for example, in the USA?

All these methods of interaction are known, because we communicate with foreign colleagues. They just need involvement, this is a kind of marketing ploy, because in fact, in order to take testimonies from citizens, you must be sure that they are obtained on certified and trusted equipment. There should be a system for verifying these data, comparing them with neighboring stations and with a long history of observations. Roshydromet has existed for 183 years, at many stations the parameters are measured and recorded from the same point six times a day for more than 150 years. You also need to know the conditions under which the readings were obtained: standard meteorological parameters are taken at a height of 2 m from the ground, on the meteorological site the height of the grass should be 10 cm. Each next 10 cm of grass growth gives an error in temperature of 0.1 degrees. Citizens can perfectly measure and transmit readings, the question is how to use it.

- In the 1990s, a huge number of your stations were closed ...

- "Huge" I would not say. But the stations were closed. The peak of development of the observational network was in 1987, and in 1991 the Union split, and a significant part of our network ended up outside of Russia. At the same time, observation points are not a cheap pleasure, and we have 315 of them only in hard-to-reach areas. If a standard weather station in the center of Russia costs 700 thousand rubles. per year, then hard-to-reach can cost up to 25 million. When funding is reduced and costs are rising, non-critical objects of the observation network have to be closed.

If all weather anomalies are part of long historical cycles that we cannot influence in any way, then what is the point of spending such money?

You cannot influence cycles of a thousand, ten, one hundred thousand years, but you can predict and correct your actions for a period of, say, up to thirty years. Look at our foreign colleagues: they have a huge interest in climate research now. Let's say the British weather service, which I believe best example to emulate, 30-year climate forecasts are being made to understand what the water level will be in inland waters in England, what, accordingly, should be the height and width of the dams. We are interested in what will happen in 10-30 years with permafrost: we have a significant part of the country located in this zone.

“A person sits on criminal responsibility and is responsible for the forecast with his fate”

There are disagreements in the aviation industry: should the meteorological information fee be included in the air navigation tax? The Ministry of Transport insists that it is necessary, but the Federal Air Transport Agency and the Federal State Unitary Enterprise "State Corporation for the Organization of Air Traffic" (GK for ATM) - that it is not. As a result, the tariff at which the Federal State Unitary Enterprise will purchase meteorological information from you has not been agreed upon?

Yes, the resolution of the issue was delayed, since the FAS was instructed to deal with this issue, and the FAS does not revise the tariffs of Roshydromet, believing that Roshydromet is not a natural monopoly. But the service gave its assessment of the tariff, and now we are coordinating it with the interested departments.

- Could you name him?

No, this is commercial information. I reassure citizens: there is and will be meteorological support for aviation.

But is it somehow different from before?

Is different. To the smaller side.

- And now the State Committee for ATM will buy meteorological information from you?

Yes. Moreover, in 2010, when the system with tariffs for weather support began to change, there were about 60 companies in Russia that dealt with weather at airports. To date, there are only a few airports independent of Roshydromet, where we are not interested in entering: these are Norilsk, Mineral water, Nalchik, Grozny, Nizhnevartovsk and a couple of northern airports.

- That is, you have become almost a monopoly?

We work at 248 airfields in the country.

- And the cost of services for carriers has increased during this time?

No, it hasn't been growing since 2012. But since 2014, we have positioned ourselves as a natural monopoly in aviation weather support, since this is de facto true. In this regard, firstly, it is necessary to make changes to the regulatory legal acts, secondly, there must be a document at the level of a government decree on the methodology for setting tariffs, and, thirdly, there must be a regulation for the provision of this service.

- How do you form tariffs and evaluate your work?

Look, each of the 248 airfields has its own class, which determines the amount of information that we must provide (depending on the flight load, on the period of operation - around the clock or on an hourly basis, on remoteness). From here we look at how many personnel we should have at this airfield: for example, if it is round-the-clock, then three shifts of eight hours each. Then the question arises before us: how to retain specialists, if now our employees' salaries are two to three times lower than the average for the constituent entity of the Russian Federation? For example, at the most complex Moscow air hub, which accounts for 60% of flights, the average salary of an employee outside of aviation is 20–24 thousand, in the aviation division - 41–47 thousand rubles. Now imagine that a person is on criminal responsibility, is responsible for the forecast with his fate, because in the event of each emergency they immediately come to us, they say, they say, the weather forecast is bad.

In addition to salary costs, there is an understanding of what equipment should be in order to provide flights. There is a lot of it, and it is expensive - we are already tormented to prove it to everyone. Because it is necessary to determine not just standard meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, wind direction), but also the visibility range, wind shear, the lower edge of clouds, lightning direction finding, satellite and radar information to transmit ... The standard package includes about 15 types equipment, this is about 60 million rubles. for one airport. Now consider: there should be double redundancy (that is, two sets), and where there is a high intensity of flights, three sets. That is, the investment component is hundreds of millions for only one object, and we have 248 of them. Any equipment has a warranty period of operation, then all repair work- already for money. The annual mandatory verification of equipment for one airport is over 1 million rubles.

I am proud to say that we have one of the best systems weather services in the world and our neighbors copy a lot from us. For example, the Minister of Transport of Japan, having familiarized himself with the work of the Sochi airport - and this is one of the most complex airfields in the country - decided to install the same system in Japan. But in order to maintain the quality of service that we have now, we need a budget of 5.6 billion rubles. per year (only for meteorological support of aviation. - “Kommersant”).

“The Americans have about 3,000 buoys. And we don't have one."

- When foreign airlines fly over Russia, where do they buy pre-flight information?

We have. Both from the airport of departure, if it is a Russian airport, and all transit information - the so-called meteo on the route. I won’t tell you a clear fare, because they are different for different airlines and for different airfields (the more flights from this airfield, the lower the fare). But Russian tariffs are less than European ones. If the World Meteorological Organization and ICAO recommend that weather expenses amount to 3-16% of the airport tax, then in Russia it is 0.3%.

- Can foreign airlines receive this information from their services?

There is a certain myth that some foreign navigation services and other meteorological companies can provide the same quality information. Can not. For one simple reason: Roshydromet organizations form the primary information from observations. And whoever has a “primary” one has better information and gives better forecasts.

A few years ago, many regional airports, mainly in the Northwestern Federal District, were famous for the poor performance of weather services, despite the fact that many are located in regions with severe weather conditions. Has the situation changed somehow?

To date, there is no such problem. If you analyze, you will see that up to a certain point these were independent companies, not the systems of Roshydromet. Now, virtually all northern airfields, aviation meteorological groups are under the jurisdiction of Roshydromet.

Ministry of Defense in a status report national security The Russian Federation in the field of maritime activities claims that the Research Fleet of FANO, Roshydromet and Rosnedra has come to a “catastrophic and crisis state”. And Roshydromet has the most difficult situation...

I'm talking about the fleet. In the USSR, Hydromet had the largest research fleet. To date, we have 19 vessels left, including 11 research expedition vessels with an unlimited navigation area. They are in a different technical condition, but all are operational. The youngest is Akademik Treshnikov, launched in 2012 and operating in the Arctic and Antarctic. The oldest one is the legendary "Somov", built in 1974-1975, it provides northern delivery to our weather stations. Every year we spend a lot of money on maintaining the fleet in working condition. This is also the report of the Ministry of Defense: say, the repair of a vessel costs 200-300 million rubles. per year, in general, the system needs about 800 million rubles a year.

- What are the main objects or regions for research now?

World Ocean. The priority, of course, is the Arctic and Antarctic. Of course, the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are interesting, but in order to work there, other means are needed. Everything works there with automatic buoys: the buoy is dropped from an airplane, plunges a kilometer deep, drifts there for ten days, measures the parameters of the ocean, emerges, measures the parameters at the boundary of the ocean and the atmosphere, dumps everything on the satellite, and then the memory is reset, and it dives again . And so two years, before changing the batteries. Such an Argo-type buoy costs from $3.5 million to $5 million. The Americans have about 3,000 buoys, that is, they have invested no less than $10 billion in buoys alone. And we don't have one. We are working on scientific programs with our partners from foreign countries, foreign meteorological services, so in the best years of the expedition we exhibited from 350. Now we are working with a number of design bureaus to make similar buoys.

- Has the funding already been secured?

Not laid down, but we are developing a public-private partnership scheme, because these products will be of interest to others, not only research organizations. This equipment will be interesting for the same deep-sea research, for shelf research before laying pipelines, for anything. The consumer will

- What budget does Roshydromet need to provide not only support, but also development?

At least another 25 billion rubles should be allocated for the development of the entire system of Roshydromet. per year (in addition to funds for meteorological support for aviation. Note that according to federal law dated December 19, 2016 No. 415-FZ "On the federal budget for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019" 16,462.6 million rubles were allocated to ensure the activities of Roshydromet in 2017 - "Kommersant").

- Did you request these funds?

We ask all the time, even trying since 2013 to break through the federal program "World Ocean". We have a critical situation in the Arctic fleet, in the research fleet in the Black Sea, in the Caspian and Baltic. It has to do with lack of money. A good research ship for work in the North costs 15 billion, for inland seas - somewhere around 2 billion. To renew the fleet and fulfill existing tasks, six to seven new ships are now needed. That is, only about 40 billion is needed for the fleet.

- Are Russian shipyards capable of building these ships for you?

Able.

- Why do we need research vessels?

Now the standard weather forecast is five days. In order to move to six, seven, ten days, a significant revolution is needed, for this it is necessary to work along the ocean-atmosphere boundary. It is necessary to study the oceans and the North, this is part of the kitchen of the weather. 60% of the weather is formed at the North Pole.

“We are practically monopolists in the Arctic”

- Are you involved in drafting bills on climate change?

Yes, we are the leading organization here.

- What are the key issues now?

Now the key question is what to do with the Paris Agreements. Russia accepted obligations, but if the Kyoto Protocol implied that the countries took on severe restrictions, then the Paris Agreements imply voluntary obligations. In order to fulfill them, it is necessary, firstly, to assume these obligations, and secondly, to determine a set of measures for their implementation and monitoring. At the same time, the industry has its own vision, the authorities have their own, and we have been discussing this agreement for two years now. In 2019, a document should be prepared, where all this will be spelled out.

- Could Russia ratify the Paris Agreement earlier?

Why hurry? When you make commitments, you must be legally responsible for them. Moreover, as I said, this issue has recently moved into the political plane, and if a country does not fulfill its obligations, then this is already a loss of face on the world stage. At the same time, all our continental and overseas friends, of course, strive to publicly come to the fore on any issue.

It turns out that the leaders of states today are forced to somehow balance between national interests and measures to save the world and the climate, right?

Hard to tell. Here, for example, are statements by Europeans about the transition to green energy. What does this mean? Refusal to produce electricity, first on coal, then on diesel and gas, and switch to biofuels in the form of mainly wind and solar. But at the same time, equipment for power generation using oil and gas has an efficiency of 80% and works out for 30-40 years, and the entire infrastructure has already been created for this: transformers, stabilizers, converters, inverters to transmit, distribute and receive energy. And now alternative energy comes and says: they say, that's it, turn it off. This can afford a small country - for example, Denmark. Large countries - Germany, France, Britain, the USA - despite their political statements, do not seek to implement them. When we began to deal with this topic at hard-to-reach stations, we analyzed all the voltage cycles, it turned out that the value changes there every half second or second. A cloud ran in - fell, left - jumped. As a result, the equipment is worn out, which means that it is necessary to change all the control equipment. It will take years and hundreds of billions of euros - for an incomprehensible purpose. Meanwhile, today coal-fired generation allows for zero CO2 emissions. Please note: the Poles and Germans do not reduce their coal generation, the Japanese did not abandon nuclear energy even after Fukushima.

- Do the situation in the world and the sanctions opposition somehow affect the work of your service? In the Arctic, for example?

In the Arctic, we are practically monopolists. Well, there is an oligopoly there: the main competitive scientific work has always been between the Americans and Russia, somewhere near Norway. Today, in terms of scientific research, we have pushed the Americans aside, Norway is trying to somehow join. In total, we have over 60 cooperation programs, including with Norway, Finland, Korea, Japan, China. Research primarily concerns ice, the processes of its formation and movement, including in areas of sea routes, climate and atmospheric observation, and, finally, pollution. Everyone is interested in the Arctic, because if you stake out your scientific participation there, then you stake out your priority, status in this zone. Therefore, within the framework of the Arctic Council, there are quite a few observer countries, even such as India.

- And the political background does not bother you?

Everything is pragmatic. The same Americans come to us, they say, let's cooperate through scientific institutes so as not to fall under sanctions. But the question is whether we need it or not: today we are leaders in scientific research in the Arctic, and this leadership cannot be missed.

“The Prosecutor General’s Office wants everything to be done without money”

Returning to the Russian problem. The Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation criticized, among other things, the network of Roshydromet for monitoring air pollution. How justified is this?

It's money again. Observations of the quality of the environment: air, soil, water, radiation - have been conducted at Roshydromet since 1933. At one time, we adopted regulations that in a settlement with a population of over 100 thousand people there should be an air quality monitoring point, if the city has a population of 500 thousand or a million people, there should be more of them. Automatic control station atmospheric air costs from 6 million to 7 million rubles. We now have 252 cities where such a network should be fully built. At one time, when funding began to decline, we went to the regional and municipal authorities: do you want to watch the air quality? We are ready to manage it. We have such projects with some subjects of the federation, but for some it is very expensive. There will be funding - there will be supervision. We do not play politics, we are trying to close key points in the country. In Crimea, for example, in 2014 we analyzed everything that happened to the observation network over the previous 20 years (while the Crimean meteorological service was part of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Ukraine, the situation there became deplorable), and included a program to restore observations and analyze the quality of the environment. Now the weather network is working, we have installed a mobile automatic hydrological station, we actually measure the quality of water along the coast via satellite, this year we launched six automatic air quality monitoring posts in large cities, and now, in December, we have installed and installed a system for monitoring the radiation situation.

- What's with this Crimeans?

Now you can safely see where the quality of air and water is.

Well, the stations are being updated, in Crimea you have created a network almost from scratch, but the Prosecutor General's Office talked about the fact that some substances are not monitored, including dioxins. Now for many regions the issue of waste incinerators is acute, and people are starting to wonder if there will be dioxins there.

Of the 246 pollutants approved by the government, we are ready to measure any. Tell me in which subject what to measure. There is a standard practice all over the world: for example, 16 substances are measured by the federal level, 40 substances by the regional level and 300 by the municipalities. And we have 246 of them at the federal level. Dioxins - no problem. We catch, we catch, we monitor.

- Are dioxins monitored in Moscow and the region?

At one time, this was transferred to Mosekomonitoring, which is under the jurisdiction of the Moscow government.

- And in the Moscow region?

Tracked when needed. We make route measurements: this is not a stationary network, but a route network - we go around and look.

- Once a year?

No, once a day, maybe once a week, depending on the observing program. The question is money. You can at least pack the whole country with these monitoring stations. Question: Do you have money? And now the question is for municipalities and regionals - allocate money, put it in, we are ready to give methods, we are ready to accept tests in our laboratories, we are ready to compile this entire system of information, we have it all.

- It turns out that the claims of the Prosecutor General's Office are justified by a lack of understanding of your work?

It's just that the Prosecutor General's Office wants everything to be done without money, but that doesn't happen. We explain to them: colleagues, of course, you can send all your decisions to the government, but the conclusion will be the same: in order for this to work, you need to give a certain amount of money to Roshydromet.

And with the possible release of ruthenium, which was recorded by Roshydromet in the fall of 2017, also a problem arose precisely from the interpretation of the data? At that time, its "extreme" content was discussed precisely on the basis of reports from your department.

Look, in 1995, and then in 1998, basic documents were adopted for the interaction of authorities regarding the monitoring of hazardous processes. It says that everything is compared relative to the previous period: for example, if in August there was a background of 0, in September it became 0.1, then you compare 0.1 with 0 and you get an extremely high indicator. If your background has changed five times, this is a high value for you. Ten times - extremely high. It has nothing to do with the maximum allowable concentration (MAC). By the way, we have been observing the background since July, and no one was interested in the meager concentration. But against the backdrop of excitement, we gathered six departments, conducted a study, identified four basic options, and worked them out.

- What was it anyway?

We had four hypotheses: the fall of a satellite with a radioisotope source, a release on the territory of Russia, a transboundary transfer from neighboring countries, and a transfer of radioactive aerosol in the upper atmosphere from other regions of the world. But the concentration was minimal, and the source could not be determined. To trace it, it was necessary to find significant traces - and there are none. In addition to standard monitoring, we carried out route observation on the ground: we launched our own cars - a mobile radiometric laboratory, which measured everything that was along the routes, and also launched an aircraft that measured the content of radioactive substances in the middle layers of the atmosphere. In fact, there is nothing. If there was a significant trace, we would have found it, but since it was hundreds of thousands of times less than the maximum concentration, it is impossible to find anything, it is problematic. And after that, no outbreaks were recorded anymore, now everything is normal.

- Is everything normal exactly at zero, as it was before, or is there some kind of background?

It is minimal, on the verge of instrument sensitivity, and does not differ from the values ​​measured in the region until the summer of 2017.

“We are not kurkuli and we are not greedy”

Let's get back to the weather forecast. Now on the site of the central observatory there is access to data from the locators of Roshydromet of Russia and Belarus. And only gluing the European part of Russia is available there, and then with a delay of several hours, and earlier there was information online. Amateur meteorologists are outraged by this.

This was the most requested information, because meteorological location is needed for ultra-precise short-term - say, 15-minute - forecasts. This is the top 1 for queries.

- On which secrecy mode is now introduced?

Not privacy, just the servers are overloaded with requests. And when your server burns down - your whole system crashes, the backup server burns out - that's all. Why allow it? There are a lot of requests: everyone wants to understand what dangerous natural phenomena are expected in the next two or three hours. This is a wonderful thing, it should be in every home. I hope that in the coming years we will launch an appropriate software. For now, it's a market. The maintenance of one locator costs 8.5 million rubles. in year. We have invested our health and a lot of extrabudgetary funds from Roshydromet in these technologies. We are not curcules and not greedy, but when, instead of raising a miserable salary, we invest in technical development, then why should we then give away the received data for free? Especially for those who then draw a beautiful picture and sell this data further.

- Can you sell this data to individuals?

You see, in order to work correctly, there must be some method of calculating how much it costs. If with large companies it is clear how to count, then with citizens it is not clear. I will answer in a human way: we have an overload of workers. And it is more important for us now to stake out a certain area of ​​research, to develop competence - and then we will be able to deal with citizens and find partners who will deal with them. For example, Yandex is now receiving radar information under a three-year agreement with us. If Yandex is interested, let it develop this direction as well.

- But before that you hinted that Yandex receives part of the data from you for free?

The agreement applies only to radar data.

- Are the costs for this direction included in your budget?

No. Investment expenses were carried out according to targeted programs, and no funds are allocated for maintenance. But budget policy is a delicate issue, I don't get into it.

- So you get out by selling this data?

And due to significant, shall we say, creativity.

We have about 40 thousand employees on a miserable salary. And we are trying to prove to decision makers that hydrometeorological information is the most demanded information in the world.

This is a colossal, highly profitable market, dominated by the British, the French, now the Chinese are climbing in, and the Japanese and Americans are working on some aspects. If in Soviet times our system was in the first roles, but now we are being thrown out of there. To prevent this, we are investing our meager extrabudgetary resources in development.

- What threatens the gap in technology?

For example, let's go back to pre-flight forecasts. ICAO recommends issuing forecasts on a three-by-three-kilometer grid. Now, based on the existing observation network, computing power and programs, we can give a forecast of 11 by 11. And in the future it will be necessary to give 1.5 by 1.5, or for cities - 0.5 by 0.5.

If ICAO switches airlines to a three by three or five by five grid from 2019, then even our first board will be forced to provide a route and request information from the British.

Computing power, ingeniously constructed operating principles, excellent management technologies and a tough approach (if you made a mistake with the forecast - you fly out) will provide them with a monopoly. The understanding of such a prospect has already forced the Germans to restore their meteorology, independent of the British.

“It was not enough to be accused of traffic jams”

The successes of the British are associated with a complete restructuring of the system. You headed the department at the end of last year and now you could carry out the necessary reforms. What does that require?

Our reform is ready. The first is the rationalization of the observation network: based on financial capabilities, what is critically needed will work and be supported. The second is the investment component: either the state provides money, or we find commercial partners, the product line is practically defined, we will develop it. And the third - work with consumers. We have something to offer the consumer: aviation, automobile, sea, river transport, and agriculture need weather.

- Is there a chance that, say, by 2030, Russian hydrometeorology will be able to switch to a commercial basis?

In 2030, the current employees will be many years old, we are not going to wait until our staff retires. Of course, we will not be the first in five years, but I hope to significantly improve efficiency.

For a simple layman, such a reform will lead to the fact that we will watch the forecast of Roshydromet in the morning, and there: “It will rain at 18:00 in Krylatskoye”?

No problem. Look, when there was a hurricane in Moscow in May 2017, not a single complaint was made against Roshydromet, because all storm warnings were issued in five days. For all sections, except for the Vnukovo runway (where the wind rose to 30 m / s), the forecast coincided by 100%. In those places where people died, the maximum winds did not exceed 14–15 m per second, and we gave from 17 to 21 maximum, so the forecasts were the most accurate.

But the Ministry of Emergency Situations, which is responsible for the notification, then said that allegedly Roshydromet had information about a wind of 27 m / s, which implies warning residents, but they transmitted 25 m / s, so there was no warning.

I have not heard such accusations. A warning is issued five days before the occurrence of a dangerous phenomenon according to the forecast, and on the day of an emergency, a forecast is issued every half hour. You can raise the entire register of storm warnings, they are all saved.

- It turns out that it is necessary to change the warning and response system?

After the hurricane in May 2017, there were a number of meetings with the Moscow government, at the level of the leadership of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and then there was a meeting with the president. On our initiative, an agreement is being prepared with the government of Moscow and the Ministry of Emergency Situations on the creation of a system for forecasting short-term rapidly developing hazardous phenomena. The program has been formed, money has been allocated to the budget of the Moscow government, and since 2018 we are starting to implement it. We will introduce new meteorological stations, install additional radars, develop new software and a warning system. According to the same scheme, it was decided to work at the first stage in other large cities, starting with St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Khabarovsk, Rostov.

Why hasn't such a system been introduced yet?

In large cities, among other things, another modeling problem arises: it is necessary to understand how the weather changes in dense buildings, for example, near high-rise buildings. This is no longer just a grid forecast, this is modeling, new software, new models. Satellites will not help here, they do not charge below 600 m. But funding for this has been provided only in Moscow so far.

It turns out that both the renovation and the construction of taller buildings in Moscow on the site of Khrushchev will change the weather in Moscow districts?

The wind profile will change.

- Do your specialists participate in some kind of assessment of prospects? Is there anyone actually doing this?

There are work Foreign experience is known: for example, the Chinese in Beijing issue a forecast every five to ten minutes, and in case of an emergency, local services are required to arrive at the scene in five minutes to turn around, break through the sewers or something else.

Often there is a feeling that we have coordination with rescue, and most importantly - with public utilities, much worse: no matter how snowfall - immediately traffic jams.

Fortunately, traffic jams do not depend on us, it was not enough for us to be accused of traffic jams.

- That is, your coordination is perfect, how do you rate it?

There is no ideal, but the coordination is good, workable. Every day at 8:30 operational communication between Roshydromet and the Ministry of Emergency Situations, at 9:00 we once again confirm the forecast for today, tomorrow and for another five days. In a crisis situation, we are in touch every hour - every half an hour. There are no problems with the fact that someone did not transfer something.

Yakovenko Maxim EvgenievichPersonal file

Born on September 21, 1967 in Obninsk (Kaluga Region). Graduated from the Faculty of Cosmonautics of the Moscow Aviation Institute (1991), master's degree from the Higher School of Economics (1996). In the same year, he received a master's degree in economics from the Erasmus University (Netherlands). In the 1990s he was engaged in entrepreneurship. In 1999 he was appointed adviser to the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Viktor Khristenko. From 2001 to 2003, he served as Deputy Minister of Natural Resources of Russia. From October 2003 to May 2004 - Head of the Department of Public Finance of the Government of the Russian Federation. In 2004–2006, he headed the budget department of the Ministry of Industry and Energy of Russia. Since 2006, he has been the head of the government relations department at NOVATEK. In 2011, he moved to the Inter RAO UES energy holding as Director for International Cooperation and Interaction with Authorities. Since 2014 - Deputy Head of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of the Russian Federation. September 5, 2017 headed Roshydromet. Acting State Councilor of the Russian Federation, 3rd class.

RoshydrometDossier

The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of the Russian Federation (Roshydromet) traces its history back to the Main Physical Observatory, established in 1849. It is an executive authority providing public services in the field of hydrometeorology and related fields, environmental monitoring and supervision of the impact on geophysical processes. It is the only authorized body in Russia to provide meteorological support for air navigation. The department also carries out the state registration of surface waters, as well as the water cadastre. Forms and ensures the functioning of the observational meteorological network. Roshydromet is administered by the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology. The service includes 8 departments for federal districts, as well as 23 departments for hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring, most of which have branches located in the centers of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Roshydromet has 17 research institutes.

Interviewed by Galina Dudina and Olga Nikitina

Dear Maxim Evgenievich!

You headed Roshydromet at a very difficult time. Outside the window, not only the weather is changing like a ragged weather vane, but amazing metamorphoses are taking place with the climate. The whole world has tuned in to a long and exhausting fight against warming, including Russia, but over the past decade everything has turned upside down:

The Arctic has stopped melting, here are the data on the minimum Arctic ice area in the month of September since 2007 (in millions of square kilometers)

2007 – 4,2

2008 – 4,6

2009 – 5,1

2010 – 4,6

2011 – 4,3

2012 – 3,4

2013 – 5,1

2014 – 5,0

2015 – 4,4

2016 – 4,1

2017 - 4,64

The average area for this period is 4.49 ml kV. km, while the area of ​​ice in 2017 exceeded this figure.

Antarctica over the past decades has not melted at all, but only froze. Here are the data of the Research Institute of the Arctic and Antarctic under your control:

For reliability, I also give the data of the head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center Sidorenkov N.S.:

As for the hype about the overheating of the atmosphere, here, over the past 10-15 years, the data are contradictory. Here is the NASA data:

Here is data from other sources:

This no longer concerns the air temperature, but the temperature of the water in the ocean, data from the Research Institute of the Arctic and Antarctic.

Here are the data from the Russian State Hydrometeorological University:

NAO is the North Atlantic Oscillation, something like the Atlantic El Niño.

By the way, throughout the second half of the 20th century, El Niños occurred with a period of 4-6 years, and in the 21st century there was only one significant El Niño in 2015-2016, which created a local surge in global temperature and in the atmosphere, globalists attribute this surge to anthropogenic warming, which is not entirely true.

And finally, there was a message from scientists from the Netherlands that CO2 emissions had already been stopped for the third year in a row, which fundamentally contradicts the spirit and letter of the Paris climate agreements, there is a completely different forecast for these emissions.

In the light of the above, it is necessary to convene a meeting of prominent scientists, supporters of the cycles of natural climate fluctuations, these are:

Frolov Ivan Evgenievich - former director of the Research Institute of the Arctic and Antarctic;

Academician Matishov Gennady Grigorievich;

Head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Sidorenkov N.S.;

Head of the laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory Khabibullo Abdusamatov;

Head of the Department of Oceanology, Moscow State University Dobrovolsky Sergey Anatolyevich.

At this meeting, to outline a number of measures in the event of a cooling of the climate in Russia in the near future, so that the cold would not be taken by surprise, as it always happens.

It may be necessary to create an organization like the Center for Climate Research, where, on the basis of theoretical developments, climate forecasting will be carried out. The Russian Hydrometeorological Center and the Antistichia Center use completely different forecasting methods. In the field of climate, Russia needs a healthy competition of scientific opinions, at the moment the opinion of supporters of anthropogenic warming prevails, which has come into blatant contradiction with reality, some of the facts are stated above.

And Russia in the coming years, at your suggestion, will have to make a decision whether or not to ratify the Paris Agreements. The price of a mistake both for you and for Russia is exorbitantly high.

I wish you a balanced and well-considered decision on your part.

With deep respect - Vladimir Erashov

The former official and arms dealer, who left behind a "scorched field" and several corruption scandals, may not just return, but head the main environmental agency of the Russian Federation.

The post of head of Rosprirodnadzor of Russia can be taken by Maxim Yakovenko, whose team in the early 2000s essentially destroyed the then-existing nature protection system in the country.

He is absolutely confident in his appointment and has already begun negotiations with businessmen who, for some reason, cannot resolve their issues with the current head of Rosprirodnadzor. Mr. Yakovenko is used to working quickly. So fast that he already managed to celebrate his yet unfulfilled appointment in one of the elite restaurants of the capital. Why worry if the issue was decided by Mikhail Dvorkovich - the brother of Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich? It was this version of his career rise that Maxim Yakovenko confided to a narrow circle of those present. Of course, in this case, the future chief ecologist simply applied the method of shuttle diplomacy from the well-known anecdote about how to pass off Rockefeller's daughter as a simple Russian peasant, but the sediment remained.

Almost all the departments in which he managed to work in key positions were shaken by high-profile corruption scandals. Meanwhile, for Maxim Yakovenko, these scandals did not have serious negative consequences: he changed jobs on time. The reasons for the unsinkability of Yakovenko lie in his biography.

To date, Yakovenko Maxim Evgenievich is the Director for International Cooperation and GR - Head of the Department for International Cooperation and Interaction with Authorities of INTER RAO UES. Despite the fact that he has always held leadership positions, he is not a media figure, he avoids communication with the media, and does not make public statements.

It is known that Maxim Yakovenko was born on September 21, 1967. In 1991 he graduated from the Moscow aviation institute majoring in "Rocket Science", after - the Higher School of Economics in Moscow and the Erasmus University in the Netherlands.

Education and special services Evil tongues say that not without the help of Western special services, after graduating from Erasmus University, Yakovenko's career rapidly took off. Almost immediately upon his return to Russia, the former Dutch student became a member of the Expert Council of the Ministry of Finance.

Perhaps that is why he prefers not to say anything about the reasons for the take-off, as well as the business he was doing at that time. In his personal data, he modestly indicates: “I worked in Expert Council Ministry of Finance, was engaged in business, was engaged in the promotion of our military products to the markets of the West.

Oh, this business of the dashing 90s! As current officials do not like to talk about this fact in their biography. It seems to be clear: "we are not like that, life is like that." Banditry, clans, shooting, unemployment and hunger. The "Red" directors of the dying Soviet military-industrial complex, in order to pay wages to workers, were ready to at least ship a nuclear bomb to Al-Qaeda. Not directly, of course. through a chain of intermediaries. One of which was our weapons baron Maxim Yakovenko. However, arms sales once invincible Soviet army abroad was far from the only business of Mr. Yakovenko.

Businessmen who knew him at that time claim that he carried out the development and implementation of raider seizures of a number of large industrial enterprises. And also state property. In structures close to Boris Berezovsky.

Therefore, the next career turn in the biography of Yakovenko looks quite natural - in the government of Mikhail Kasyanov, he became a deputy minister. People from "their own" commercial structures were often appointed to strategic positions in the government of Mikhail Kasyanov, most of them related to the same Berezovsky holding.

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Real Goals The new boss of Yakovenko, Vitaly Artyukhov (who had previously been First Deputy Minister of Finance, Head of the State Tax Service, Head of the Federal Agency for Transport and First Deputy Minister of Transport) was not accidentally appointed Minister of Natural Resources in 2001.

As it turned out later, he and his team had quite definite goals for distributing the most profitable plots of Russian mineral resources in favor of oligarchic structures.

Vedomosti wrote about one of the latest examples of a large-scale distribution of subsoil: "... Vitaly Artyukhov, on the last day of his tenure, signed permits for the issuance of more than 60 subsoil use licenses ..."

The former weapons baron Maxim Yakovenko instantly retrained as an environmentalist. Since August 2001, he was deputy minister and at the same time head of the state service for environmental protection of the Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia, he coordinated the mass distribution of protected areas for development, issued hundreds of permits for discharges to large environmental pollutants - companies of friendly financial and industrial groups.

The regional subdivisions of the Ministry of Natural Resources were only surprised when the management of the next plant brought from Moscow permission to dump the entire periodic table into the rivers and the atmosphere, signed by the leaders of the capital's ministry.

“Absolutely non-transparent department,” independent ecologists commented on the then Ministry of Natural Resources.

During the work of Kasyanov's nominee Yakovenko in the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, supervision in the field of environmental protection was actually destroyed. Hundreds of environmentalists of the highest class were left without work and were thrown into the street.

Later, in 2004, when Rosprirodnadzor was organized, the environmental protection system in Russia had to be created virtually from scratch. In just two years, she was simply ruined by the Artyukhov-Yakovenko team. At that time, no one was engaged in nature protection: all forces were concentrated on the distribution of natural resources, bowels and lands. The supervision system was destroyed, reducing the staff of inspectors, dismissing competent specialists. The failure of environmental policy was so obvious that in August 2003, Yakovenko was appointed Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, without the prefix "head of the state environmental protection service."

Government and flair Apparently, due to the fact that with tasks not related to nature protection, Maxim Yakovenko coped "excellently" - the development of natural resources in favor of specific structures and individuals under the control of Yakovenko went smoothly - he went on a promotion to the government. On October 1, 2003, Maxim Yakovenko became the head of the public finance department in the Kasyanov Government. A little later than the new chief Yakovenko President Russian Federation Vladimir Putin described him as a "crook" nicknamed "Misha - two percent".

But even in the government of Kasyanov, Yakovenko did not stay long. According to some indirect information that slipped through the media at that time, it becomes clear that Yakovenko was not left in the government not only because of his odiousness, but also because possible appearance criminal cases based on the results of his work in the Ministry of Natural Resources. Minister Artyukhov was fired, and finally, in a hurry, took many wrong steps, including the issuance of 60 licenses for subsoil use in one day, among the recipients, by the way, were companies belonging to his longtime partners and friends.

Ministry of Industry and personal well-being After Kasyanov's resignation, the flying Dutchman Maxim Yakovenko went to the Ministry of Industry. On April 1, 2004, he became Director of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Industry and Energy of the Russian Federation. By this time, Maxim Yakovenko had already realized that the civil service was much more profitable than the arms trade.

By 2009, according to operational data, Yakovenko became one of the richest employees of the structures of the Russian Government. Rumor ascribes to him huge houses in the Moscow region, Switzerland and Miami, registered with relatives, as well as control over a number of Russian food and processing industries.

Director with connections After the first complaints against the minister and his team appeared, Yakovenko, who had already made a decent fortune, in 2009 went to wait out a possible storm to another influential comrade from the 90s - Anatoly Borisovich Chubais. In 2009, Yakovenko became the head of the government relations department at NOVATEK, and in 2011 he moved to INTER RAO UES.

The essence of his activities in companies is quite obvious - Yakovenko himself often declared his extensive connections in government bodies. It is also known in what form these relations are carried out: under the control of Yakovenko, mutual understanding is achieved between officials and commercial structures. Basically, he does what he loves, but represents a different side.

This is strange, since he still does not show any activity in the media space. However, the companies in which he worked in recent years are one of the main sponsors of the Association of Managers of Russia and the Center for the Study of Problems of Interaction between Business and Government.

He served time, but did not serve time Thus, a graduate of a Dutch university, a former arms baron and a man of Mikhail Kasyanov, Maxim Yakovenko, who is directly related to corruption scandals in ministries, to the collapse of the nature conservation system in Russia, quietly and peacefully survived all the upheavals in the form of resignations, inspections and criminal cases in warm positions in commercial structures.

And now they again decided to return him to the bureaucratic arena, and not as some head of department, but again as the head of the federal structure for environmental protection, which has grown stronger and acquired powers in ten years. Considering that Maxim Yakovenko is used to fulfilling certain goals, bad premonitions about the future of the department creep in.

Minister-lobbyist According to some information, Yakovenko's candidacy is actively lobbied by the Minister of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation Sergey Donskoy, who is being imposed on the GR-manager of INTER RAO UES by influential persons of the same old oligarchic guard. They say that Donskoy was strongly recommended to Yakovenko as an experienced manager.

Since the manager from Yakovenko (especially in environmental activities) is known what kind, we can assume what the further support of this person by Donskoy will turn out to be.

It is likely that Sergei Donskoy (who has a reputation as a spineless politician) will eventually be moved to some honorary promotion, and Maxim Yakovenko will be made a minister.

However, it is possible to appoint Yakovenko - this is the initiative of Donskoy himself. When Yakovenko was the head of the budget department at the Ministry of Industry, Sergey Donskoy held a similar position at the Ministry of Natural Resources, and they communicated closely, exchanging experience. Maybe then Donskoy was bribed by Yakovenko's acumen and enterprise, his ability to turn state opportunities into commercial interests.

The latter may also be evidenced by the fact that the personnel policy of Minister Donskoy has recently raised big questions in the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation.

For example, Andrey Tretyakov, a student friend of Donskoy, was appointed, at his suggestion, the general director of Rosgeologia. Not having the qualifications for the position, Andrei Tretyakov made drunken brawls at field meetings and fought with flight attendants on airplanes ...

And for the Ryazan region, Sergey Donskoy chose Aleksey Grigoriev as the head of the regional Rosprirodnadzor. Grigoriev, a month after his appointment, was detained by his own employees for hunting elk without a license.

The Federal Service for Supervision of Natural Resources has no luck at all with leaders; the infamous Oleg Mitvol, a student of Boris Berezovsky, did not benefit the department.

Vladimir Kirillov also did not live up to expectations. It's no joke - at his side, subordinates organized a whole business, receiving bribes from enterprises and conducting custom checks.

Now the figure of Maxim Yakovenko, who has already "distinguished himself" in the field of nature protection, looms ahead. Apparently, Sergei Donskoy should reconsider his views and criteria for choosing the head of the federal service, whose task is to control and supervise the use of natural resources, and not distribute them to “who needs it” for the purpose of personal gain.